David Shambaugh, "Return to the Middle Kingdom?" in Power Shift: China and Asia’s New Dynamics, edited by David Shambaugh. Berkeley: University of California Press, 2005.
In this article, Shambaugh wrote that China will not be a dangerous rising star nation. He explained since several years ago China showed its willingness to be a good neighbor and tried to give good influences to its environment.
Shambaugh noted china does seem to exert some influence in at least two areas. First, in the normative realm, China offered a new security concept, strategic partnership and other initiatives to fashion a new set of norms to govern interstates relations and prevent conflict among Asian nations. Second, china opened its border for many intellectuals, technicians and political elites to study in many higher education institutions in China.
Shambaugh also explained six events that influenced the change of china policy toward Asia. First, most of Asian nations did not condemn China after the Tiananmen accident. Second, when most of Southeast Asian nations suffered from 1997 economic crisis, China acted in a responsible & stabilizing way, although China also suffered from the crisis. This act, then, gave a good impression to Southeast Asian nations and made them more welcome to China.
Third, after involved as an observer to the meeting of ASEAN and CSCAP, China changed its perception that the regional multilateral organizations are the U.S. tools to contain China in international politics. Fourth, China changed its diplomatic campaign to demolish all Cold War-legacy alliances in the world after most of the Asian nations unwelcomed to the idea. Fifth, after the bombing of Chinese embassy in Belgrade during the 1999 war in Kosovo, China change its view of the decline of U.S. hegemonic power.
Sixth, although there are terrorism issues, North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, the Kashmir dispute, China tends to view their current regional security environment as generally benign and non-threatening to china.
Furthermore, Shambaugh also wrote that Asian nations do not need to worry for China’s PLA modernization and cross-strait relations problem, because China’s power projection capabilities do not yet grow significantly and China worry about the very negative impact on regional security and stability that would result should China decide to use coercion against Taiwan.
In my opinion, Shambaugh was too focused on China’s internal factor. Shambugh is too optimist about China rise. It is true China, now, does not have any negative intention for its growing power, but nation’s acts are also determined by its external factors. Even though China does not have negative intentions for its environment, China can still have possibility to use its coercive power if the external factors force China taking that action. More over the perception of “China threat” still exist in international politics. So, the possibility for other nations to take disadvantageous policy toward China is still possible too.
wendy a. prajuli
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